Seahawks vs Steelers — Week 2, 2019
The Seahawks took over leading 28-26 with 4:10 left, 2nd & 6 at their own 40, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 28, Steelers 26. Seahawks won 28-26 — the drive time expired.
Seahawks ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 40, 4:10 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 74.6% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 73.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:10) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at SEA 47 for 7 yards (22-S.Nelson).
- (4:06) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 20-R.Penny up the middle to SEA 48 for 1 yard (34-Te.Edmunds, 55-D.Bush).
- (3:24) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles up the middle to PIT 42 for 10 yards (29-K.Kelly).
- (2:41) (Shotgun) 20-R.Penny up the middle to PIT 39 for 3 yards (26-M.Barron).
- (2:16) (Shotgun) 20-R.Penny left guard to PIT 48 for 1 yard (92-O.Adeniyi).
- (2:11) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles left guard to PIT 33 for 15 yards (29-K.Kelly).
- (2:00) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson up the middle to PIT 31 for 2 yards (97-C.Heyward).
- (1:15) 3-R.Wilson kneels to PIT 32 for -1 yards.
- (1:14) 3-R.Wilson kneels to PIT 33 for -1 yards.
- (:32) 3-R.Wilson kneels to PIT 34 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.64 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.31 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.64 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.16 pts |
| Outside run | -0.11 pts |
| QB keep | -0.13 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.47 pts |
| Quick out | -0.48 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.59 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.79 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.80 pts |
| Inside run | -0.85 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.91 pts |
| Curl route | -1.25 pts |
| Play action | -1.52 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.61 pts |
| End-around | -3.82 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.87 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.43 pts |
| Deep post | -6.02 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.76 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.31 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.