49ers vs Buccaneers — Week 1, 2019
The 49ers took over leading 20-17 with 4:47 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 31, Buccaneers 17. 49ers won 31-17 — the drive scored.
49ers ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:47 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 74.6% for 49ers. Our model starts at 73.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:47) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short middle to 84-K.Bourne.
- (4:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to SF 31 for 6 yards (45-D.White).
- (4:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle to SF 36 for 5 yards (31-J.Whitehead).
- (3:22) 31-R.Mostert left end to TB 46 for 18 yards (24-D.Stewart, 28-V.Hargreaves). PENALTY on TB-24-D.Stewart, Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact, 15 yards, enforced at TB 46.
- (3:12) 22-M.Breida up the middle to TB 31 for no gain (94-C.Nassib).
- (2:30) 31-R.Mostert left end to TB 29 for 2 yards (36-M.Stewart).
- (2:24) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short middle to 22-M.Breida (34-M.Edwards).
- (2:21) 9-R.Gould 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.52 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.07 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.52 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.21 pts |
| Outside run | +0.07 pts |
| QB keep | -0.13 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.35 pts |
| Quick out | -0.38 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.48 pts |
| Inside run | -0.58 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.62 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.63 pts |
| Curl route | -1.24 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.33 pts |
| Play action | -1.41 pts |
| End-around | -3.64 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.66 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.25 pts |
| Deep post | -5.86 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.57 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.07 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.