Rams vs Panthers — Week 1, 2019
The Rams took over leading 30-27 with 1:57 left, 1st & 10 at midfield, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Rams 30, Panthers 27. Rams won 30-27 — the drive time expired.
Rams ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. Near midfield, 1:57 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 91.5% for Rams. Our model starts at 88.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:57) 30-T.Gurley right tackle to CAR 42 for 8 yards (94-E.Obada).
- (1:51) 30-T.Gurley right tackle to CAR 38 for 4 yards (24-J.Bradberry).
- (1:06) 16-J.Goff kneels to CAR 40 for -2 yards.
- (:38) 16-J.Goff kneels to CAR 41 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.42 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.81 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.42 pts |
| Outside run | +0.05 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.01 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.39 pts |
| Inside run | -0.40 pts |
| Quick out | -0.54 pts |
| QB keep | -0.56 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.60 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.68 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.69 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.30 pts |
| Play action | -1.98 pts |
| Curl route | -2.07 pts |
| End-around | -4.41 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.47 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.26 pts |
| Deep post | -7.58 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.99 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.81 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.