49ers vs Cardinals — Week 9, 2019
The 49ers took over leading 28-25 with 4:47 left, 1st & 10 at their own 26, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 28, Cardinals 25. 49ers won 28-25 — the drive time expired.
49ers ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 26, 4:47 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 72.8% for 49ers. Our model starts at 71.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:47) 22-M.Breida left tackle to SF 25 for -1 yards (98-C.Peters).
- (4:42) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete deep right to 19-D.Samuel [34-J.Thompson].
- (4:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep left to 17-E.Sanders to SF 41 for 16 yards (58-J.Hicks) [55-Cha.Jones].
- (3:54) 22-M.Breida up the middle to SF 46 for 5 yards (92-Z.Kerr).
- (3:11) 22-M.Breida up the middle to SF 48 for 2 yards (59-J.Walker; 58-J.Hicks).
- (2:27) 26-T.Coleman left end pushed ob at ARI 49 for 3 yards (58-J.Hicks). Arizona challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
- (2:21) 22-M.Breida right tackle to SF 49 for -2 yards (90-J.Bullard).
- (2:17) 26-T.Coleman up the middle to ARI 43 for 8 yards (32-B.Baker; 21-P.Peterson).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 82-R.Dwelley to ARI 37 for 11 yards (27-K.Peterson).
- (1:16) 10-J.Garoppolo kneels to ARI 38 for -1 yards.
- (:39) 10-J.Garoppolo kneels to ARI 39 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.62 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.81 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.62 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.29 pts |
| Outside run | +0.15 pts |
| QB keep | -0.03 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.26 pts |
| Quick out | -0.32 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.41 pts |
| Inside run | -0.53 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.58 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.62 pts |
| Curl route | -1.08 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.27 pts |
| Play action | -1.29 pts |
| End-around | -3.48 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.50 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.07 pts |
| Deep post | -5.60 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.34 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.81 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.