Saints vs Texans — Week 1, 2019
The Saints took over leading 24-21 with 3:29 left, 1st & 10 at their own 7, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Saints 30, Texans 28. Saints won 30-28 — the drive scored.
Saints ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. Backed up at their own 7, 3:29 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 74.4% for Saints. Our model starts at 75.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:29) 41-A.Kamara left end to NO 9 for 2 yards (21-B.Roby).
- (2:53) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 13-M.Thomas to NO 15 for 6 yards (97-A.Blackson; 24-J.Joseph).
- (2:05) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 19-T.Ginn to HOU 44 for 41 yards (22-A.Colvin). Pass 35, YAC 6
- (1:57) 41-A.Kamara right guard to HOU 33 for 11 yards (20-J.Reid).
- (1:51) 28-L.Murray right tackle to HOU 29 for 4 yards (55-B.McKinney).
- (1:47) 41-A.Kamara left end to HOU 34 for -5 yards (41-Z.Cunningham).
- (1:41) 41-A.Kamara left tackle to HOU 29 for 5 yards (37-J.Addae).
- (:55) 3-W.Lutz 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.90 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.02 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.90 pts |
| Outside run | -0.90 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.92 pts |
| Inside run | -1.13 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.31 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.43 pts |
| Quick out | -1.68 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.73 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.78 pts |
| QB keep | -1.80 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.94 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.97 pts |
| Curl route | -3.09 pts |
| Play action | -3.14 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.79 pts |
| End-around | -4.81 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.45 pts |
| Deep post | -6.77 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.85 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.02 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.