Chargers vs Bears — Week 8, 2019
The Chargers took over leading 17-16 with 2:04 left, 1st & 10 at their own 15, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 17, Bears 16. Chargers won 17-16 — the drive turned it over.
Chargers ball, up 1 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 15, 2:04 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 70.7% for Chargers. Our model starts at 64.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:04) 17-P.Rivers sacked at LAC 9 for -6 yards (52-K.Mack).
- (1:59) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 13-K.Allen to LAC 13 for 4 yards (23-K.Fuller).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 86-H.Henry to LAC 24 for 11 yards (23-K.Fuller).
- (1:45) (Punt formation) 1-T.Long punts 58 yards to CHI 18, Center-45-C.Mazza. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 35 for 17 yards (49-D.Tranquill).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.01 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.60 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.01 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.13 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.15 pts |
| QB keep | -0.57 pts |
| Curl route | -0.66 pts |
| Outside run | -0.87 pts |
| Quick out | -0.96 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.04 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.15 pts |
| Play action | -1.18 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.21 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.42 pts |
| Inside run | -1.69 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.28 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.87 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.34 pts |
| End-around | -3.89 pts |
| Deep post | -4.09 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.59 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.60 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.