Colts vs Raiders — Week 4, 2019
The Colts took over trailing 24-17 with 2:28 left, 1st & 10 at their own 15, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
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What really happened
Final: Colts 24, Raiders 31. Raiders won 31-24 — the drive turnover.
Colts ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 15, 2:28 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 11.6% for Colts. Our model starts at 8.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:28) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 80-C.Rogers (50-N.Morrow). IND-80-C.Rogers was injured during the play.
- (2:22) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 21-N.Hines pushed ob at IND 25 for 10 yards (50-N.Morrow).
- (2:17) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left intended for 14-Z.Pascal INTERCEPTED by 25-E.Harris at IND 30. 25-E.Harris for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.38 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.27 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.38 pts |
| Curl route | +0.22 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.04 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.11 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.17 pts |
| Play action | -0.18 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.19 pts |
| QB keep | -0.24 pts |
| Quick out | -0.36 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.39 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.49 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.51 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.65 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.66 pts |
| Spike it | -0.92 pts |
| Outside run | -1.09 pts |
| Inside run | -1.23 pts |
| End-around | -1.26 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.27 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.