Patriots vs Rams — Week 21, 2018
The Patriots took over leading 10-3 with 4:17 left, 1st & 10 at their own 4, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
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What really happened
Final: Patriots 13, Rams 3. Patriots won 13-3 — the drive scored.
Playoff football. Patriots ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. Backed up at their own 4, 4:17 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 88.8% for Patriots. Our model starts at 90.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:17) 26-S.Michel left guard to NE 5 for 1 yard (93-N.Suh).
- (3:38) 26-S.Michel right tackle to NE 31 for 26 yards (50-S.Ebukam).
- (2:52) 26-S.Michel left tackle to NE 33 for 2 yards (99-A.Donald; 58-C.Littleton). PENALTY on LA-56-D.Fowler, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at NE 33.
- (2:47) 26-S.Michel right tackle to NE 41 for 3 yards (99-A.Donald).
- (2:42) 34-R.Burkhead left tackle to LA 33 for 26 yards (22-M.Peters).
- (2:30) 26-S.Michel left end to LA 29 for 4 yards (58-C.Littleton). Penalty on NE-77-T.Brown, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. Penalty on NE-87-R.Gronkowski, Offensive Holding, declined.
- (2:25) 26-S.Michel right end to LA 24 for 5 yards (26-M.Barron).
- (2:00) 26-S.Michel left tackle to LA 24 for no gain (56-D.Fowler, 20-L.Joyner).
- (1:16) 3-S.Gostkowski 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.53 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.91 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.53 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Outside run | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -0.80 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.80 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.23 pts |
| Quick out | -1.51 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.54 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.54 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.73 pts |
| QB keep | -1.81 pts |
| Pull RPO | -2.05 pts |
| Play action | -3.34 pts |
| Curl route | -3.79 pts |
| End-around | -5.27 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.64 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.50 pts |
| Deep post | -8.84 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.23 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.91 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.