Buccaneers vs Bengals — Week 8, 2018
The Buccaneers took over trailing 34-26 with 3:16 left, 1st & 10 at their own 12, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 34, Bengals 37. Bengals won 37-34 — the drive scored.
Buccaneers ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 12, 3:16 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 4.0% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 6.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:16) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 32-J.Rodgers to TB 21 for 9 yards (50-J.Evans).
- (2:51) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete short left to 12-C.Godwin.
- (2:47) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left to 13-M.Evans to TB 48 for 27 yards (22-W.Jackson). Penalty on CIN-22-W.Jackson, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
- (2:40) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 10-A.Humphries pushed ob at CIN 35 for 17 yards (23-D.Phillips).
- (2:34) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete short right to 12-C.Godwin.
- (2:30) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 32-J.Rodgers to CIN 25 for 10 yards (30-J.Bates) [96-C.Dunlap].
- (2:02) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 11-D.Jackson pushed ob at CIN 18 for 7 yards (36-S.Williams).
- (1:57) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick sacked at CIN 18 for 0 yards (sack split by 90-M.Johnson and 50-J.Evans).
- (1:14) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete short left to 12-C.Godwin.
- (1:10) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 80-O.Howard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass to 12-C.Godwin is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.03 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-1.14 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.03 pts |
| Curl route | -0.12 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.21 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.34 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.35 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.36 pts |
| Play action | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| QB keep | -0.47 pts |
| Quick out | -0.53 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.54 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.57 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.58 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.61 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.71 pts |
| Spike it | -0.73 pts |
| Inside run | -0.95 pts |
| Outside run | -0.99 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.01 pts |
| End-around | -1.14 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.