Ravens vs Steelers — Week 9, 2018
The Ravens took over trailing 23-16 with 0:44 left, 1st & 10 at their own 24, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 16, Steelers 23. Steelers won 23-16 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Ravens ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 24, 0:44 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 4.3% for Ravens. Our model starts at 4.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (:44) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep right to 15-M.Crabtree (24-C.Sensabaugh).
- (:37) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco sacked at BAL 17 for -7 yards (91-S.Tuitt).
- (:13) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 13-J.Brown ran ob at BAL 23 for 6 yards.
- (:08) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 15-M.Crabtree to BAL 30 for 7 yards. Lateral to 37-J.Allen to BAL 22 for -8 yards. Lateral to 13-J.Brown to BAL 20 for -2 yards. PENALTY on BAL-13-J.Brown, Illegal Forward Pass, 0 yards, enforced at BAL 20.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.75 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.67 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.75 pts |
| Curl route | +0.57 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.37 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.31 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.26 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.25 pts |
| QB keep | +0.24 pts |
| Play action | +0.23 pts |
| Quick out | +0.13 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.11 pts |
| Flea flicker | +0.09 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.01 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.06 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.15 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.20 pts |
| Spike it | -0.51 pts |
| Outside run | -0.56 pts |
| End-around | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -0.64 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.67 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.