49ers vs Vikings — Week 1, 2018
The 49ers took over trailing 24-16 with 1:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 11, 1 timeout in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 16, Vikings 24. Vikings won 24-16 — the drive turnover.
49ers ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 11, 1:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 4.3% for 49ers. Our model starts at 4.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:49) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short right to 22-M.Breida.
- (1:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep middle intended for 81-T.Taylor INTERCEPTED by 22-H.Smith [93-S.Richardson] at SF 29. 22-H.Smith to SF 15 for 14 yards (15-P.Garcon).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.10 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-0.90 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.10 pts |
| Curl route | -0.12 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.20 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.24 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.25 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.31 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.32 pts |
| Play action | -0.32 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.36 pts |
| Quick out | -0.39 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.40 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB keep | -0.42 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.46 pts |
| Spike it | -0.49 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.50 pts |
| Inside run | -0.75 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.78 pts |
| Outside run | -0.79 pts |
| End-around | -0.90 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.