Colts vs Texans — Week 4, 2018
The Colts took over trailing 31-23 with 2:53 left, 1st & 10 at their own 15, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Colts 34, Texans 37. Texans won 37-34 — the drive scored.
Colts ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 15, 2:53 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 6.2% for Colts. Our model starts at 6.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:53) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck scrambles left end to IND 19 for 4 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
- (2:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 21-N.Hines to IND 22 for 3 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
- (2:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 80-C.Rogers to IND 44 for 22 yards (20-J.Reid).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 14-Z.Pascal to HOU 39 for 17 yards (24-J.Joseph).
- (1:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete short left to 85-E.Ebron [90-J.Clowney].
- (1:34) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 11-R.Grant to HOU 26 for 13 yards.
- (1:28) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck scrambles right end ran ob at HOU 19 for 7 yards (41-Z.Cunningham).
- (1:21) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 80-C.Rogers to HOU 9 for 10 yards (22-A.Colvin) [59-W.Mercilus].
- (:51) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 21-N.Hines for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 12-A.Luck pass to 80-C.Rogers is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.27 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.01 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.27 pts |
| Curl route | +0.14 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.00 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.10 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.15 pts |
| Play action | -0.17 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.17 pts |
| QB keep | -0.21 pts |
| Quick out | -0.30 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.32 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.40 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.52 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.53 pts |
| Spike it | -0.72 pts |
| Outside run | -0.88 pts |
| Inside run | -0.98 pts |
| End-around | -1.01 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.01 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.