Ravens vs Bengals — Week 2, 2018
The Ravens took over trailing 31-23 with 2:59 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 23, Bengals 34. Bengals won 34-23 — the drive turnover.
Ravens ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 25, 2:59 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 6.0% for Ravens. Our model starts at 7.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:59) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete short right to 13-J.Brown (27-D.Kirkpatrick).
- (2:56) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 15-M.Crabtree.
- (2:52) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco sacked at BAL 20 for -5 yards (36-S.Williams). FUMBLES (36-S.Williams) [36-S.Williams], RECOVERED by CIN-75-J.Willis at BAL 29. 75-J.Willis to BAL 29 for no gain (37-J.Allen).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.69 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.86 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.69 pts |
| Curl route | +0.69 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.46 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.42 pts |
| QB keep | +0.33 pts |
| Play action | +0.26 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.17 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.17 pts |
| Quick out | +0.16 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.12 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.04 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.17 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.24 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.28 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.29 pts |
| Outside run | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -0.81 pts |
| End-around | -0.81 pts |
| Spike it | -0.85 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.86 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.