Chiefs vs Patriots — Week 20, 2018
The Chiefs took over trailing 24-21 with 3:26 left, 1st & 10 at their own 32, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Patriots.
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What really happened
Final: Chiefs 31, Patriots 31. Tied 31-31 — the drive scored.
Playoff football. Chiefs ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 32, 3:26 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 38.3% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 34.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:26) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 14-S.Watkins.
- (3:11) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left to 87-T.Kelce.
- (3:02) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep left to 10-T.Hill (31-J.Jones) [70-A.Butler].
- (2:54) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 14-S.Watkins to NE 2 for 38 yards (32-D.McCourty).
- (2:06) (Shotgun) 26-Dam. Williams up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.50 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.69 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.50 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.29 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.23 pts |
| QB keep | +1.15 pts |
| Play action | +0.62 pts |
| Quick out | +0.55 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.43 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.10 pts |
| Deep post | -0.18 pts |
| Outside run | -0.41 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.42 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.50 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.56 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -1.18 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.51 pts |
| End-around | -1.85 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.00 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.38 pts |
| Spike it | -2.69 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.