Saints vs Rams — Week 20, 2018
The Saints took over tied at 20 with 4:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
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What really happened
Final: Saints 23, Rams 23. Tied 23-23 — the drive scored.
Playoff football. Saints ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 30, 4:57 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 57.5% for Saints. Our model starts at 55.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:57) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 80-A.Carr to NO 35 for 5 yards (58-C.Littleton). Pass 5, YAC 0
- (4:22) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 22-M.Ingram to NO 38 for 3 yards (43-J.Johnson). Pass 1, YAC 2
- (3:37) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 41-A.Kamara to NO 46 for 8 yards (20-L.Joyner; 58-C.Littleton). Pass -6, YAC 14
- (2:51) 22-M.Ingram right guard to NO 44 for -2 yards (99-A.Donald).
- (2:07) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 19-T.Ginn to LA 13 for 43 yards (20-L.Joyner). Pass 42, YAC 1
- (1:58) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete short left to 13-M.Thomas.
- (1:55) 41-A.Kamara right end to LA 13 for no gain (26-M.Barron).
- (1:49) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete short right to 11-T.Lewis.
- (1:45) 3-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.70 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.58 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.70 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.65 pts |
| QB keep | +0.52 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.33 pts |
| Quick out | +0.03 pts |
| Curl route | +0.02 pts |
| Outside run | -0.01 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.09 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.33 pts |
| Play action | -0.49 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.69 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -0.81 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.38 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.28 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.65 pts |
| End-around | -2.71 pts |
| Spike it | -2.92 pts |
| Deep post | -3.38 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.53 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.58 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.