Eagles vs Saints — Week 19, 2018
The Eagles took over trailing 20-14 with 2:58 left, 1st & 10 at their own 42, 1 timeout in hand, against the Saints.
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What really happened
Final: Eagles 14, Saints 20. Saints won 20-14 — the drive turnover.
Playoff football. Eagles ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 42, 2:58 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 20.2% for Eagles. Our model starts at 17.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:58) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass incomplete short middle to 19-G.Tate.
- (2:53) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to NO 42 for 16 yards (92-M.Davenport). Pass 13, YAC 3
- (2:25) (Shotgun) 43-D.Sproles right guard to NO 27 for no gain (76-T.Stallworth).
- (2:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short left intended for 17-A.Jeffery INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Lattimore at NO 19. 23-M.Lattimore to NO 33 for 14 yards (19-G.Tate).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.39 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.73 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.39 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.01 pts |
| Deep post | +0.98 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.95 pts |
| QB keep | +0.83 pts |
| Play action | +0.63 pts |
| Quick out | +0.43 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.35 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.25 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.22 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.08 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.65 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.69 pts |
| Outside run | -0.74 pts |
| Inside run | -1.19 pts |
| End-around | -1.30 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.33 pts |
| Spike it | -1.73 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.