Rams vs Cowboys — Week 19, 2018
The Rams took over leading 30-22 with 2:11 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Cowboys.
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What really happened
Final: Rams 30, Cowboys 22. Rams won 30-22 — the drive time expired.
Playoff football. Rams ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 2:11 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 97.8% for Rams. Our model starts at 96.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:11) 30-T.Gurley up the middle to LA 26 for 1 yard (90-D.Lawrence, 96-M.Collins).
- (2:08) 35-C.Anderson up the middle to LA 28 for 2 yards (50-S.Lee).
- (2:00) 16-J.Goff scrambles right end to LA 39 for 11 yards (50-S.Lee).
- (1:51) 35-C.Anderson up the middle to LA 44 for 5 yards (38-J.Heath; 51-C.Reid).
- (1:46) 35-C.Anderson up the middle to 50 for 6 yards (25-X.Woods).
- (1:03) 16-J.Goff kneels to LA 49 for -1 yards.
- (:38) 16-J.Goff kneels to LA 48 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.87 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.30 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.87 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.50 pts |
| Inside run | -0.65 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.79 pts |
| Quick out | -1.16 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.18 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.19 pts |
| QB keep | -1.49 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.55 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.63 pts |
| Play action | -2.98 pts |
| Curl route | -3.37 pts |
| End-around | -5.37 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.50 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.44 pts |
| Deep post | -9.24 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.34 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.30 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.