Eagles vs Bears — Week 18, 2018
The Eagles took over trailing 15-10 with 4:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 40, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
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What really happened
Final: Eagles 16, Bears 15. Eagles won 16-15 — the drive scored.
Playoff football. Eagles ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 40, 4:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 26.0% for Eagles. Our model starts at 27.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:48) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short middle to 17-A.Jeffery to CHI 45 for 15 yards (59-D.Trevathan).
- (4:05) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass incomplete short right to 88-D.Goedert (27-S.McManis).
- (4:00) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert to CHI 35 for 10 yards (26-D.Bush).
- (3:20) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 13-N.Agholor pushed ob at CHI 27 for 8 yards (58-R.Smith).
- (3:13) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to CHI 14 for 13 yards (38-A.Amos; 27-S.McManis) [52-K.Mack].
- (2:35) (Shotgun) 28-W.Smallwood left guard to CHI 13 for 1 yard (96-A.Hicks).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass incomplete short middle to 13-N.Agholor (27-S.McManis).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short middle to 17-A.Jeffery to CHI 2 for 11 yards (38-A.Amos).
- (1:14) (Shotgun) 43-D.Sproles right guard to CHI 2 for no gain (52-K.Mack).
- (1:10) (Shotgun) 43-D.Sproles right guard to CHI 2 for no gain (52-K.Mack; 91-E.Goldman).
- (1:05) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass incomplete short right to 17-A.Jeffery (23-K.Fuller).
- (1:01) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 19-G.Tate for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-L.Floyd].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.05 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.34 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.05 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.89 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.82 pts |
| QB keep | +0.79 pts |
| Play action | +0.35 pts |
| Quick out | +0.31 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.21 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.05 pts |
| Deep post | -0.23 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.47 pts |
| Outside run | -0.48 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.53 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.58 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Inside run | -1.09 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.34 pts |
| End-around | -1.60 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.71 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.99 pts |
| Spike it | -2.34 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.