Chargers vs Ravens — Week 18, 2018
The Chargers took over leading 23-17 with 1:56 left, 1st & 10 at their own 22, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Ravens.
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What really happened
Final: Chargers 23, Ravens 17. Chargers won 23-17 — the drive turned it over.
Playoff football. Chargers ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 22, 1:56 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 96.8% for Chargers. Our model starts at 93.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:56) 68-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 28-M.Gordon left guard to LAC 24 for 2 yards (57-C.Mosley).
- (1:51) 28-M.Gordon right guard to LAC 26 for 2 yards (32-E.Weddle).
- (1:41) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 85-A.Gates to LAC 25 for 9 yards (23-T.Jefferson).
- (:54) (Punt formation) 5-D.Jones punts 41 yards to BAL 34, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.21 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.73 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.21 pts |
| Outside run | -0.24 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.35 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.40 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.48 pts |
| Inside run | -0.51 pts |
| Quick out | -0.91 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.94 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.98 pts |
| QB keep | -1.12 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.21 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.46 pts |
| Play action | -2.58 pts |
| Curl route | -2.86 pts |
| End-around | -4.97 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.11 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.99 pts |
| Deep post | -8.61 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.82 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.73 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.