Giants vs Cowboys — Week 17, 2018
The Giants took over leading 32-28 with 3:09 left, 1st & 10 at the Cowboys 18, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: Giants 35, Cowboys 36. Cowboys won 36-35 — the drive scored.
Giants ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At the Cowboys 18, 3:09 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 88.6% for Giants. Our model starts at 93.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:09) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 82-S.Simonson to DAL 9 for 9 yards (38-J.Heath, 97-T.Charlton).
- (2:52) 26-S.Barkley right end to DAL 18 for no gain (57-D.Wilson, 97-T.Charlton).
- (2:45) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley up the middle to DAL 20 for -2 yards (51-C.Reid).
- (2:39) 2-A.Rosas 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.26 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.93 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.26 pts |
| Field goal | +0.57 pts |
| Outside run | -0.25 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Inside run | -0.51 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.53 pts |
| Quick out | -0.95 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.98 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.02 pts |
| QB keep | -1.17 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.26 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.46 pts |
| Play action | -2.63 pts |
| Curl route | -2.92 pts |
| End-around | -4.97 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.23 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.11 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.86 pts |
| Deep post | -9.00 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.93 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.