49ers vs Broncos — Week 14, 2018
The 49ers took over leading 20-14 with 3:51 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 20, Broncos 14. 49ers won 20-14 — the drive turned it over on downs.
49ers ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 20, 3:51 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 88.2% for 49ers. Our model starts at 88.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:51) 41-J.Wilson right tackle to SF 21 for 1 yard (95-D.Wolfe).
- (3:46) 4-N.Mullens pass short left to 11-M.Goodwin to SF 28 for 7 yards (29-B.Roby) [94-D.Peko Sr.]. FUMBLES (29-B.Roby), ball out of bounds at SF 28. Caught at SF 28; 0 YAC Denver challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. (Timeout #2 at 03:41.)
- (3:39) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short right to 18-D.Pettis pushed ob at DEN 46 for 31 yards (35-D.Thomas) [58-V.Miller]. Caught at SF 36. 18-YAC
- (3:32) 41-J.Wilson up the middle to DEN 42 for 4 yards (29-B.Roby, 47-J.Jewell).
- (3:26) 41-J.Wilson left tackle to DEN 39 for 3 yards (99-A.Gotsis).
- (2:39) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short middle to 81-T.Taylor to DEN 33 for 6 yards (31-J.Simmons). Caught at DEN 33; 0 YAC
- (2:00) 4-N.Mullens kneels to DEN 34 for -1 yards.
- (1:24) 4-N.Mullens kneels to DEN 35 for -1 yards.
- (:43) 4-N.Mullens kneels to DEN 37 for -2 yards.
- (:08) 4-N.Mullens kneels to DEN 39 for -2 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.71 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.11 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.71 pts |
| Outside run | -0.09 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.33 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.44 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Inside run | -0.47 pts |
| Quick out | -0.79 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.85 pts |
| QB keep | -0.87 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.91 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.02 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.37 pts |
| Play action | -2.31 pts |
| Curl route | -2.48 pts |
| End-around | -4.58 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.79 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.59 pts |
| Deep post | -7.97 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.29 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.11 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.