Buccaneers vs Eagles — Week 2, 2018
The Buccaneers took over leading 27-21 with 2:41 left, 1st & 10 at their own 15, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 27, Eagles 21. Buccaneers won 27-21 — the drive turned it over.
Buccaneers ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 15, 2:41 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 89.2% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 91.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:41) 25-P.Barber up the middle to TB 12 for -3 yards (53-N.Bradham; 58-J.Hicks).
- (2:36) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 11-D.Jackson pushed ob at TB 29 for 17 yards (31-J.Mills).
- (2:30) 25-P.Barber left tackle to TB 31 for 2 yards (55-B.Graham, 91-F.Cox).
- (2:26) 25-P.Barber left guard to TB 36 for no gain (58-J.Hicks, 55-B.Graham).
- (2:23) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 13-M.Evans to TB 46 for 10 yards (31-J.Mills). Penalty on PHI-31-J.Mills, Defensive Holding, declined.
- (2:20) 25-P.Barber right tackle to TB 46 for no gain (58-J.Hicks).
- (2:00) 25-P.Barber up the middle to TB 46 for no gain (55-B.Graham, 53-N.Bradham).
- (1:15) 32-J.Rodgers left guard to TB 46 for no gain (54-K.Grugier-Hill, 27-M.Jenkins).
- (:28) 9-B.Anger punts 47 yards to PHI 7, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 30-C.Clement to PHI 10 for 3 yards (29-R.Smith).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.55 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.59 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.55 pts |
| Outside run | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -0.74 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.77 pts |
| Quick out | -1.23 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.26 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.27 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.37 pts |
| QB keep | -1.42 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.65 pts |
| Play action | -2.72 pts |
| Curl route | -2.98 pts |
| End-around | -5.04 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.13 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.99 pts |
| Deep post | -8.45 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.77 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.59 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.