Eagles vs Texans — Week 16, 2018
The Eagles took over leading 29-23 with 4:34 left, 1st & 10 at their own 45, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 32, Texans 30. Eagles won 32-30 — the drive turned it over.
Eagles ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 45, 4:34 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 90.6% for Eagles. Our model starts at 89.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:34) (Shotgun) 33-J.Adams up the middle to PHI 47 for 2 yards (99-J.Watt).
- (4:29) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short left to 13-N.Agholor to HOU 48 for 5 yards (39-D.Burton).
- (4:23) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass incomplete short left to 19-G.Tate (51-D.Cole).
- (4:17) 1-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.50 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.41 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.50 pts |
| Outside run | -0.19 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.47 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.50 pts |
| Inside run | -0.51 pts |
| Quick out | -0.93 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.97 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.02 pts |
| QB keep | -1.07 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.21 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.43 pts |
| Play action | -2.52 pts |
| Curl route | -2.77 pts |
| End-around | -4.76 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.00 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.84 pts |
| Deep post | -8.32 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.55 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.41 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.