Browns vs Panthers — Week 14, 2018
The Browns took over leading 26-20 with 2:35 left, 1st & 10 at their own 3, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Browns 26, Panthers 20. Browns won 26-20 — the drive turned it over.
Browns ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Backed up at their own 3, 2:35 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 88.7% for Browns. Our model starts at 91.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:35) 24-N.Chubb right guard to CLE 2 for -1 yards (25-E.Reid).
- (2:31) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 19-B.Perriman pushed ob at CLE 17 for 15 yards (26-D.Jackson).
- (2:24) 24-N.Chubb left tackle to CLE 22 for 5 yards (26-D.Jackson).
- (2:17) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 24-N.Chubb to CLE 21 for -1 yards (59-L.Kuechly).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield right guard to CLE 24 for 3 yards (59-L.Kuechly; 93-K.Love).
- (1:15) 4-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to CAR 29, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 23-K.Barner to CAR 35 for 6 yards (27-T.Thomas; 59-D.Hines).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.46 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.03 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.58 pts |
| Outside run | -0.61 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.72 pts |
| Inside run | -0.75 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.19 pts |
| Quick out | -1.48 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.49 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.50 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.70 pts |
| QB keep | -1.80 pts |
| Pull RPO | -2.01 pts |
| Play action | -3.32 pts |
| Curl route | -3.79 pts |
| End-around | -5.32 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.68 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.57 pts |
| Deep post | -8.92 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.36 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.03 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.