Buccaneers vs Browns — Week 7, 2018
The Buccaneers took over leading 23-16 with 4:55 left, 1st & 10 at their own 1, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 23, Browns 23. Tied 23-23 — the drive turned it over.
Buccaneers ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. Backed up at their own 1, 4:55 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 88.1% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 89.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:55) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 82-A.Auclair to TB 6 for 5 yards (22-J.Peppers).
- (4:15) 32-J.Rodgers right guard to TB 9 for 3 yards (55-G.Avery, 22-J.Peppers).
- (3:30) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston sacked at TB 5 for -4 yards (90-E.Ogbah).
- (2:50) 9-B.Anger punts 43 yards to TB 48, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 22-J.Peppers to TB 16 for 32 yards (59-D.Bond).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.47 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.95 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.47 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.67 pts |
| Outside run | -0.72 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.86 pts |
| Inside run | -0.87 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.27 pts |
| Quick out | -1.55 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.58 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.58 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.79 pts |
| QB keep | -1.84 pts |
| Pull RPO | -2.10 pts |
| Play action | -3.36 pts |
| Curl route | -3.80 pts |
| End-around | -5.29 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.78 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.63 pts |
| Deep post | -8.91 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.28 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.95 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.