Ravens vs Browns — Week 17, 2018
The Ravens took over leading 26-24 with 3:24 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 26, Browns 24. Ravens won 26-24 — the drive turned it over.
Ravens ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 25, 3:24 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 77.8% for Ravens. Our model starts at 70.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:24) (Shotgun) 30-K.Dixon right guard to BAL 28 for 3 yards (53-J.Schobert).
- (2:46) (Shotgun) 88-T.Montgomery right tackle to BAL 30 for 2 yards (39-T.Mitchell).
- (2:41) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson FUMBLES (Aborted) at BAL 24, touched at BAL 24, recovered by BAL-88-T.Montgomery at BAL 24. 88-T.Montgomery to BAL 24 for no gain (52-R.Armstrong).
- (2:00) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 51 yards to CLE 25, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-A.Callaway to CLE 26 for 1 yard (41-A.Levine Sr.).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.35 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.32 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.35 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.71 pts |
| QB keep | +0.39 pts |
| Outside run | +0.31 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.22 pts |
| Quick out | +0.01 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.09 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.29 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| Inside run | -0.46 pts |
| Curl route | -0.48 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Play action | -0.82 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.19 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.03 pts |
| End-around | -3.24 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.57 pts |
| Deep post | -4.95 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.89 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.32 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.