Saints vs Rams — Week 9, 2018
The Saints took over leading 38-35 with 4:50 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Saints 45, Rams 35. Saints won 45-35 — the drive scored.
Saints ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:50 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 77.6% for Saints. Our model starts at 73.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:50) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete short right to 89-J.Hill.
- (4:47) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara right guard to NO 28 for 3 yards (90-M.Brockers).
- (4:02) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 13-M.Thomas for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 24, YAC 48. PENALTY on NO-13-M.Thomas, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.52 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.07 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.52 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.20 pts |
| Outside run | +0.06 pts |
| QB keep | -0.14 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.37 pts |
| Quick out | -0.39 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.48 pts |
| Inside run | -0.59 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.63 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.64 pts |
| Curl route | -1.25 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.34 pts |
| Play action | -1.42 pts |
| End-around | -3.64 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.66 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.25 pts |
| Deep post | -5.86 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.56 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.07 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.