Falcons vs Buccaneers — Week 6, 2018
The Falcons took over leading 31-29 with 3:47 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 34, Buccaneers 29. Falcons won 34-29 — the drive scored.
Falcons ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 25, 3:47 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 77.5% for Falcons. Our model starts at 68.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:47) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 11-J.Jones ran ob at ATL 43 for 18 yards (24-B.Grimes).
- (3:37) 26-T.Coleman left end to ATL 41 for -2 yards (54-L.David).
- (3:35) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 25-I.Smith to ATL 45 for 4 yards (54-L.David).
- (3:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 81-A.Hooper to TB 47 for 8 yards (54-L.David).
- (3:04) 25-I.Smith right tackle to TB 48 for -1 yards (58-K.Alexander).
- (2:17) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 14-J.Hardy to TB 39 for 9 yards (35-J.Elliott).
- (2:00) 26-T.Coleman right guard to TB 39 for no gain (97-V.Curry).
- (1:16) 3-M.Bryant 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL-3-M.Bryant was injured during the play.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.37 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.11 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.37 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.69 pts |
| QB keep | +0.40 pts |
| Outside run | +0.30 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.21 pts |
| Quick out | +0.00 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.11 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.31 pts |
| Curl route | -0.44 pts |
| Inside run | -0.49 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.50 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.56 pts |
| Play action | -0.80 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.20 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.96 pts |
| End-around | -3.15 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.47 pts |
| Deep post | -4.77 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.73 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.11 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.