Seahawks vs Chiefs — Week 16, 2018
The Seahawks took over leading 31-28 with 4:36 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 38, Chiefs 31. Seahawks won 38-31 — the drive scored.
Seahawks ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:36 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 78.2% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 73.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:36) (Shotgun) 32-C.Carson up the middle to SEA 29 for 4 yards (59-R.Ragland, 53-A.Hitchens).
- (3:52) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right to 89-D.Baldwin (39-Tr. Smith).
- (3:46) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 83-D.Moore pushed ob at SEA 36 for 7 yards (20-S.Nelson).
- (3:10) 32-C.Carson right guard to SEA 34 for -2 yards (59-R.Ragland, 91-D.Nnadi).
- (3:04) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett ran ob at KC 21 for 45 yards (35-C.Ward).
- (2:51) 3-R.Wilson sacked at KC 30 for -9 yards (95-C.Jones).
- (2:44) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 89-D.Baldwin to KC 1 for 29 yards (35-C.Ward). Penalty on KC-35-C.Ward, Defensive Holding, declined.
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 32-C.Carson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.55 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.09 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.55 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.25 pts |
| Outside run | +0.11 pts |
| QB keep | -0.10 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.32 pts |
| Quick out | -0.35 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.45 pts |
| Inside run | -0.55 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.59 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.60 pts |
| Curl route | -1.21 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.31 pts |
| Play action | -1.39 pts |
| End-around | -3.63 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.64 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.24 pts |
| Deep post | -5.86 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.58 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.09 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.