Colts vs Jaguars — Week 10, 2018
The Colts took over leading 29-26 with 4:03 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Colts 29, Jaguars 26. Colts won 29-26 — the drive missed field goal.
Colts ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:03 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 78.2% for Colts. Our model starts at 74.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:03) 12-A.Luck pass deep right to 13-T.Hilton to JAX 40 for 35 yards (42-B.Church).
- (3:14) (Shotgun) 25-M.Mack up the middle to JAX 40 for no gain (93-C.Campbell).
- (3:10) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 21-N.Hines to JAX 34 for 6 yards (42-B.Church).
- (3:03) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete short right to 13-T.Hilton [91-Y.Ngakoue].
- (2:58) 4-A.Vinatieri 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.64 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.02 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.64 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.38 pts |
| Outside run | +0.24 pts |
| QB keep | +0.03 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.17 pts |
| Quick out | -0.24 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.34 pts |
| Inside run | -0.45 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.50 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.51 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.54 pts |
| Curl route | -1.05 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.21 pts |
| Play action | -1.25 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.53 pts |
| End-around | -3.53 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.13 pts |
| Deep post | -5.75 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.49 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.02 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.