49ers vs Lions — Week 2, 2018
The 49ers took over leading 30-27 with 3:22 left, 1st & 10 at their own 22, 1 timeout in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 30, Lions 27. 49ers won 30-27 — the drive turned it over.
49ers ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 22, 3:22 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 78.3% for 49ers. Our model starts at 75.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:22) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 15-P.Garcon to SF 35 for 13 yards (27-G.Quin) [40-J.Davis]. Caught at SF 35. 0-YAC
- (2:35) 46-A.Morris left tackle to SF 39 for 4 yards (28-Q.Diggs).
- (2:27) 46-A.Morris left tackle to SF 43 for 4 yards (91-A.Robinson).
- (2:14) 46-A.Morris left tackle to SF 49 for 1 yard (27-G.Quin, 91-A.Robinson).
- (2:08) 46-A.Morris right guard to 50 for 1 yard (52-C.Jones, 91-A.Robinson).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at SF 40 for -10 yards (42-D.Kennard).
- (1:16) 5-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to DET 16, Center-86-K.Nelson. 39-J.Agnew ran ob at DET 16 for no gain.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.64 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.02 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.64 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.51 pts |
| Outside run | +0.33 pts |
| QB keep | +0.15 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.03 pts |
| Quick out | -0.14 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.24 pts |
| Inside run | -0.38 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.40 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.50 pts |
| Curl route | -0.92 pts |
| Play action | -1.14 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.15 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.45 pts |
| End-around | -3.50 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.05 pts |
| Deep post | -5.69 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.47 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.02 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.