Bengals vs Steelers — Week 17, 2018
The Bengals took over trailing 16-13 with 1:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 13, Steelers 16. Steelers won 16-13 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Bengals ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 35, 1:49 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 27.8% for Bengals. Our model starts at 30.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:49) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel pass incomplete deep left to 15-J.Ross.
- (1:44) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel pass incomplete short right to 19-A.Tate (24-C.Sensabaugh) [48-B.Dupree].
- (1:40) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel pass short middle to 12-A.Erickson to CIN 40 for 10 yards (34-Te.Edmunds).
- (1:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel pass incomplete deep right to 80-J.Malone. Coverage by 24-Sensabaugh.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.19 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.56 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.19 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.73 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.66 pts |
| QB keep | +1.50 pts |
| Play action | +1.12 pts |
| Deep post | +0.98 pts |
| Quick out | +0.85 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.72 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.34 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.29 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.20 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.35 pts |
| Outside run | -0.51 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.58 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.24 pts |
| Inside run | -1.30 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.41 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.57 pts |
| End-around | -1.67 pts |
| Spike it | -2.56 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.