Panthers vs Saints — Week 15, 2018
The Panthers took over trailing 12-9 with 1:44 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 9, Saints 12. Saints won 12-9 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Panthers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 20, 1:44 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 25.1% for Panthers. Our model starts at 23.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:44) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 29 for 9 yards (56-D.Davis; 24-V.Bell).
- (1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right to 10-C.Samuel.
- (1:17) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 34 for 5 yards (24-V.Bell).
- (1:04) (No Huddle) 1-C.Newton spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (1:03) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short middle to 10-C.Samuel (56-D.Davis).
- (:58) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 13-J.Wright to CAR 39 for 5 yards (25-E.Apple).
- (:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right to 80-I.Thomas [56-D.Davis].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.01 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.18 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.01 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.54 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.43 pts |
| Deep post | +1.34 pts |
| QB keep | +1.28 pts |
| Play action | +1.03 pts |
| Quick out | +0.73 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.62 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.46 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.41 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.28 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.33 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Outside run | -0.63 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.79 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.79 pts |
| Inside run | -1.28 pts |
| End-around | -1.45 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.48 pts |
| Spike it | -2.18 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.