Saints vs Cowboys — Week 13, 2018
The Saints took over trailing 13-10 with 2:35 left, 1st & 10 at their own 15, 1 timeout in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: Saints 10, Cowboys 13. Cowboys won 13-10 — the drive turnover.
Saints ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 15, 2:35 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 27.2% for Saints. Our model starts at 26.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:35) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 13-M.Thomas to NO 20 for 5 yards (54-J.Smith).
- (2:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right intended for 41-A.Kamara INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Lewis [96-M.Collins] at NO 23. 27-J.Lewis to NO 16 for 7 yards (71-R.Ramczyk). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.47 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-2.60 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.47 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.23 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.06 pts |
| Deep post | -0.07 pts |
| Play action | -0.32 pts |
| QB keep | -0.33 pts |
| Quick out | -0.71 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.74 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.78 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.85 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.00 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.12 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.39 pts |
| Outside run | -1.68 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.04 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.07 pts |
| Inside run | -2.22 pts |
| Spike it | -2.35 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.42 pts |
| End-around | -2.60 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.