Giants vs 49ers — Week 10, 2018
The Giants took over trailing 23-20 with 2:46 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Giants 27, 49ers 23. Giants won 27-23 — the drive scored.
Giants ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 2:46 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 28.8% for Giants. Our model starts at 29.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:46) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short right to 13-O.Beckham (25-R.Sherman).
- (2:43) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep right to 88-E.Engram pushed ob at SF 44 for 31 yards (20-J.Ward). Caught at NYG 46. 10-YAC
- (2:36) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 88-E.Engram to SF 38 for 6 yards (51-M.Smith, 48-F.Warner). Caught at SF 40. 2-YAC
- (2:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 26-S.Barkley to SF 41 for -3 yards (25-R.Sherman). Caught at SF 45. 4-YAC
- (1:50) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete deep right to 26-S.Barkley.
- (1:41) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete deep right to 88-E.Engram (38-A.Exum, 51-M.Smith).
- (1:35) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 26-S.Barkley pushed ob at SF 12 for 23 yards (24-K.Williams). Caught at SF 32. 20-YAC
- (1:27) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 88-E.Engram to SF 3 for 9 yards (38-A.Exum). Caught at SF 5. 2-YAC
- (:57) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 87-S.Shepard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.76 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.47 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.76 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.38 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.36 pts |
| QB keep | +1.22 pts |
| Play action | +0.82 pts |
| Quick out | +0.64 pts |
| Deep post | +0.55 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.52 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.19 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.00 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.09 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| Outside run | -0.51 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Inside run | -1.23 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.41 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.50 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.62 pts |
| End-around | -1.65 pts |
| Spike it | -2.47 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.