Raiders vs Steelers — Week 14, 2018
The Raiders took over trailing 21-17 with 2:55 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 24, Steelers 21. Raiders won 24-21 — the drive scored.
Raiders ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 2:55 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 28.0% for Raiders. Our model starts at 22.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 30-J.Richard to LV 30 for 5 yards (97-C.Heyward; 42-M.Burnett).
- (2:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 88-M.Ateman to LV 40 for 10 yards (24-C.Sensabaugh).
- (2:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 87-J.Cook to PIT 46 for 14 yards (28-M.Hilton).
- (1:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 10-S.Roberts to PIT 7 for 39 yards (34-Te.Edmunds).
- (1:16) (Shotgun) 30-J.Richard left guard to PIT 6 for 1 yard (56-A.Chickillo).
- (:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right [28-M.Hilton].
- (:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short left to 87-J.Cook (42-M.Burnett).
- (:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 85-D.Carrier for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV-76-J.Feliciano was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.57 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.10 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.57 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.19 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.14 pts |
| QB keep | +1.01 pts |
| Deep post | +0.81 pts |
| Play action | +0.72 pts |
| Quick out | +0.52 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.42 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.14 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.12 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.08 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| Outside run | -0.66 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.01 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.08 pts |
| Inside run | -1.23 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.43 pts |
| End-around | -1.47 pts |
| Spike it | -2.10 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.