Colts vs Bengals — Week 1, 2018
The Colts took over trailing 27-23 with 3:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Colts 23, Bengals 34. Bengals won 34-23 — the drive turnover.
Colts ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 3:57 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 28.4% for Colts. Our model starts at 26.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:57) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete short middle to 84-J.Doyle (96-C.Dunlap).
- (3:52) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete short middle to 13-T.Hilton (27-D.Kirkpatrick). Penalty on IND-11-R.Grant, Illegal Formation, declined.
- (3:47) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 84-J.Doyle to IND 37 for 12 yards (56-H.Nickerson).
- (3:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 84-J.Doyle to IND 41 for 4 yards (21-D.Dennard).
- (2:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 20-J.Wilkins up the middle to IND 45 for 4 yards (96-C.Dunlap).
- (2:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 80-C.Rogers to CIN 48 for 7 yards (59-N.Vigil).
- (2:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 11-R.Grant to CIN 44 for 4 yards (30-J.Bates).
- (1:59) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 11-R.Grant to CIN 36 for 8 yards (22-W.Jackson).
- (1:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 21-N.Hines to CIN 28 for 8 yards (59-N.Vigil).
- (1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 21-N.Hines pushed ob at CIN 25 for 3 yards (22-W.Jackson) [75-J.Willis].
- (1:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 21-N.Hines to CIN 30 for -5 yards (59-N.Vigil).
- (:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete short right to 21-N.Hines.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.27 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.33 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.27 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.01 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.98 pts |
| QB keep | +0.89 pts |
| Play action | +0.48 pts |
| Quick out | +0.39 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.29 pts |
| Deep post | +0.11 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.01 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.28 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.38 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Outside run | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -1.24 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.48 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.55 pts |
| End-around | -1.68 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.77 pts |
| Spike it | -2.33 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.