Seahawks vs Cardinals — Week 17, 2018
The Seahawks took over tied at 24 with 1:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 27, Cardinals 24. Seahawks won 27-24 — the drive scored.
Seahawks ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 1:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 64.4% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 56.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:49) (Shotgun) 27-M.Davis right tackle to SEA 29 for 4 yards (95-R.Gunter).
- (1:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 27-M.Davis pushed ob at SEA 34 for 5 yards (36-B.Baker).
- (1:24) (Shotgun) 27-M.Davis left tackle to SEA 38 for 4 yards (98-C.Peters).
- (1:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at ARI 25 for 37 yards (33-T.Boston).
- (:56) (Shotgun) 32-C.Carson left tackle to ARI 23 for 2 yards (41-A.Bethea).
- (:16) 53-J.Hunt reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson right end to ARI 12 for 11 yards (43-H.Reddick).
- (:08) 3-R.Wilson kneels to ARI 15 for -3 yards.
- (:03) 11-S.Janikowski 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.64 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.76 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.64 pts |
| QB keep | +1.40 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.40 pts |
| Curl route | +1.31 pts |
| Quick out | +0.74 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.59 pts |
| Play action | +0.48 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.26 pts |
| Outside run | +0.23 pts |
| Take a knee | -0.29 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.56 pts |
| Inside run | -0.77 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.33 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.33 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.67 pts |
| Deep post | -2.12 pts |
| End-around | -2.44 pts |
| Spike it | -2.94 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.77 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.76 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.