Falcons vs Saints — Week 3, 2018
The Falcons took over tied at 37 with 1:09 left, 1st & 10 at their own 26, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 37, Saints 37. Tied 37-37 — the drive turned it over.
Falcons ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 26, 1:09 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 65.7% for Falcons. Our model starts at 59.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:09) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 81-A.Hooper to ATL 33 for 7 yards (56-D.Davis).
- (:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones to ATL 38 for 5 yards (26-P.Williams).
- (:42) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan scrambles left guard to ATL 39 for 1 yard (98-S.Rankins).
- (:36) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan scrambles right end ran ob at ATL 44 for 5 yards (94-C.Jordan).
- (:28) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short middle to 12-M.Sanu [53-A.Klein].
- (:25) 5-M.Bosher punts 43 yards to NO 13, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.74 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.90 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.74 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.49 pts |
| QB keep | +1.47 pts |
| Curl route | +1.40 pts |
| Quick out | +0.80 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.65 pts |
| Play action | +0.52 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.30 pts |
| Outside run | +0.07 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.29 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.56 pts |
| Take a knee | -0.85 pts |
| Inside run | -0.92 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.33 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.50 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.69 pts |
| Deep post | -2.19 pts |
| End-around | -2.63 pts |
| Spike it | -2.92 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.88 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.90 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.