Panthers vs Seahawks — Week 12, 2018
The Panthers took over tied at 27 with 3:22 left, 1st & 10 at their own 21, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 27, Seahawks 30. Seahawks won 30-27 — the drive missed field goal.
Panthers ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 21, 3:22 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 55.8% for Panthers. Our model starts at 53.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:22) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 31 for 10 yards (30-B.McDougald).
- (2:42) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete deep left to 88-G.Olsen.
- (2:37) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 12-D.Moore ran ob at CAR 49 for 18 yards.
- (2:29) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 12-D.Moore to SEA 40 for 11 yards (33-T.Thompson).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton up the middle to SEA 37 for 3 yards (90-J.Reed).
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right.
- (1:50) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 12-D.Moore to SEA 34 for 3 yards (37-T.Flowers) [54-B.Wagner].
- (1:45) 9-G.Gano 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.22 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.82 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.22 pts |
| QB keep | +1.02 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.95 pts |
| Curl route | +0.82 pts |
| Quick out | +0.43 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.29 pts |
| Play action | +0.11 pts |
| Outside run | +0.09 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.06 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.00 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.51 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -0.82 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.35 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.62 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.94 pts |
| Deep post | -2.40 pts |
| End-around | -2.46 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.88 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.82 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.