Seahawks vs Cardinals — Week 4, 2018
The Seahawks took over tied at 17 with 1:50 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 20, Cardinals 17. Seahawks won 20-17 — the drive scored.
Seahawks ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 35, 1:50 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 55.8% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 59.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:50) (Shotgun) 27-M.Davis up the middle to SEA 48 for 13 yards (41-A.Bethea).
- (1:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 16-T.Lockett to ARI 43 for 9 yards (33-T.Boston).
- (1:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 20-R.Penny up the middle to ARI 40 for 3 yards (23-B.Benwikere).
- (:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 89-D.Baldwin to ARI 34 for 6 yards (33-T.Boston).
- (:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 20-R.Penny up the middle to ARI 34 for no gain (36-B.Baker).
- (:04) (No Huddle) 3-R.Wilson spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:04) 11-S.Janikowski 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.59 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.15 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.59 pts |
| QB keep | +1.35 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.31 pts |
| Curl route | +1.13 pts |
| Quick out | +0.70 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.56 pts |
| Play action | +0.37 pts |
| Outside run | +0.36 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.25 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.10 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.29 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.52 pts |
| Inside run | -0.64 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.23 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.54 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.92 pts |
| End-around | -2.49 pts |
| Deep post | -2.53 pts |
| Spike it | -2.87 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.07 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.15 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.