Browns vs Broncos — Week 15, 2018
The Browns took over leading 17-16 with 4:35 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Browns 17, Broncos 16. Browns won 17-16 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Browns ball, up 1 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 25, 4:35 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 64.6% for Browns. Our model starts at 62.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:35) 24-N.Chubb left tackle to DEN 35 for 40 yards (31-J.Simmons).
- (3:47) 24-N.Chubb right guard to DEN 33 for 2 yards (99-A.Gotsis, 94-D.Peko Sr.).
- (3:38) 24-N.Chubb left end to DEN 19 for 9 yards (34-W.Parks, 47-J.Jewell).
- (2:51) 24-N.Chubb right tackle to DEN 16 for 3 yards (34-W.Parks).
- (2:09) 24-N.Chubb left guard to DEN 15 for 1 yard (94-D.Peko Sr.; 99-A.Gotsis).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 85-D.Njoku pushed ob at DEN 10 for 5 yards (31-J.Simmons). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
- (1:53) 24-N.Chubb right guard to DEN 12 for -2 yards (99-A.Gotsis).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.90 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.45 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.90 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.63 pts |
| QB keep | +0.39 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.20 pts |
| Outside run | +0.05 pts |
| Quick out | -0.05 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.16 pts |
| Curl route | -0.29 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.39 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.65 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.67 pts |
| Play action | -0.72 pts |
| Inside run | -0.74 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.38 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.71 pts |
| End-around | -3.04 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.15 pts |
| Deep post | -4.18 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.23 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.45 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.