Saints vs Browns — Week 2, 2018
The Saints took over trailing 12-10 with 4:57 left, 1st & 10 at the Browns 18, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Saints 21, Browns 18. Saints won 21-18 — the drive scored.
Saints ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At the Browns 18, 4:57 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 65.9% for Saints. Our model starts at 62.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:57) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 82-B.Watson to CLE 10 for 8 yards (38-T.Carrie; 53-J.Schobert). Pass 5, YAC 3
- (4:15) 74-J.Bushrod reported in as eligible. 41-A.Kamara right guard to CLE 10 for no gain (93-T.Coley; 22-J.Peppers).
- (3:31) 41-A.Kamara right tackle to CLE 5 for 5 yards (22-J.Peppers).
- (2:44) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 13-M.Thomas for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 5, YAC 0
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 41-A.Kamara rushes right end. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. NO #74 J.Bushrod checked in as eligible.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Field goal (+3.97 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.04 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Field goal | +3.97 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.79 pts |
| QB keep | +0.58 pts |
| Outside run | +0.42 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.38 pts |
| Quick out | +0.11 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.01 pts |
| Curl route | -0.10 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.21 pts |
| Inside run | -0.40 pts |
| Play action | -0.51 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.04 pts |
| End-around | -2.67 pts |
| Spike it | -2.75 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.88 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.33 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.10 pts |
| Deep post | -5.52 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.04 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.