Commanders vs Titans — Week 16, 2018
The Commanders took over trailing 19-16 with 4:30 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 16, Titans 25. Titans won 25-16 — the drive turnover.
Commanders ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 4:30 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 32.7% for Commanders. Our model starts at 32.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:30) 26-A.Peterson up the middle to WAS 30 for 5 yards (90-D.Jones). TEN-99-J.Casey was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
- (4:11) 26-A.Peterson right tackle to WAS 34 for 4 yards (59-W.Woodyard, 31-K.Byard).
- (3:40) 26-A.Peterson up the middle to WAS 36 for 2 yards (24-K.Vaccaro; 59-W.Woodyard).
- (3:06) (Shotgun) 8-J.Johnson pass short right to 80-J.Crowder to WAS 49 for 13 yards (25-A.Jackson).
- (2:31) (Shotgun) 25-C.Thompson up the middle to TEN 49 for 2 yards (94-A.Johnson, 91-D.Morgan).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-J.Johnson pass short left to 80-J.Crowder to TEN 44 for 5 yards (21-M.Butler).
- (1:22) (Shotgun) 8-J.Johnson pass deep left intended for 18-J.Doctson INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard at TEN 27. 31-K.Byard to TEN 28 for 1 yard (18-J.Doctson).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.04 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.61 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.04 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.96 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.85 pts |
| QB keep | +0.85 pts |
| Quick out | +0.32 pts |
| Play action | +0.30 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.21 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.08 pts |
| Outside run | -0.45 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.59 pts |
| Deep post | -0.63 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.71 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.86 pts |
| Inside run | -1.14 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.46 pts |
| End-around | -1.86 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.17 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.58 pts |
| Spike it | -2.61 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.