Chiefs vs Broncos — Week 4, 2018
The Chiefs took over trailing 23-20 with 4:35 left, 1st & 10 at their own 40, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 27, Broncos 23. Chiefs won 27-23 — the drive scored.
Chiefs ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 40, 4:35 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 34.9% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 38.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:35) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-T.Hill to KC 48 for 8 yards (25-C.Harris).
- (3:56) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 10-T.Hill to KC 45 for -3 yards (24-A.Jones).
- (3:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 10-T.Hill pushed ob at DEN 49 for 6 yards (25-C.Harris) [58-V.Miller].
- (3:07) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right [55-B.Chubb]. PENALTY on KC-15-P.Mahomes, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 49.
- (2:53) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 11-D.Robinson to DEN 46 for 23 yards (31-J.Simmons) [95-D.Wolfe].
- (2:03) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 84-D.Harris ran ob at DEN 11 for 35 yards.
- (1:49) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt right tackle to DEN 4 for 2 yards (54-B.Marshall; 95-D.Wolfe).
- (1:43) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.04 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-3.20 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.04 pts |
| Curl route | +0.99 pts |
| QB keep | +0.91 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.88 pts |
| Quick out | +0.35 pts |
| Play action | +0.26 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.23 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.06 pts |
| Outside run | -0.24 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.59 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.97 pts |
| Inside run | -1.01 pts |
| Deep post | -1.11 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.16 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.39 pts |
| End-around | -1.96 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.64 pts |
| Spike it | -2.79 pts |
| Flea flicker | -3.20 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.