Ravens vs Browns — Week 5, 2018
The Ravens took over trailing 9-6 with 4:29 left, 1st & 10 at their own 34, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 9, Browns 9. Tied 9-9 — the drive scored.
Ravens ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 34, 4:29 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 34.0% for Ravens. Our model starts at 36.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:29) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short left to 15-M.Crabtree to BAL 40 for 6 yards (28-E.Gaines).
- (4:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep left to 15-M.Crabtree to CLE 41 for 19 yards (28-E.Gaines).
- (3:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 37-J.Allen to CLE 34 for 7 yards (55-G.Avery).
- (3:15) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short left to 83-W.Snead IV to CLE 27 for 7 yards (38-T.Carrie).
- (2:35) 34-A.Collins right end to CLE 30 for -3 yards (51-J.Collins; 90-E.Ogbah).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete short right to 13-J.Brown.
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 37-J.Allen to CLE 14 for 16 yards (23-D.Randall).
- (1:09) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 13-J.Brown.
- (1:05) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete short right to 34-A.Collins.
- (1:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 15-M.Crabtree.
- (:56) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.05 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-2.92 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.05 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.03 pts |
| QB keep | +0.91 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.90 pts |
| Quick out | +0.35 pts |
| Play action | +0.30 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.24 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.05 pts |
| Outside run | -0.33 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.59 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.84 pts |
| Deep post | -0.87 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.01 pts |
| Inside run | -1.07 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.43 pts |
| End-around | -1.92 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.42 pts |
| Spike it | -2.73 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.92 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.