Buccaneers vs Steelers — Week 3, 2018
The Buccaneers took over trailing 30-27 with 3:02 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 27, Steelers 30. Steelers won 30-27 — the drive turned it over.
Buccaneers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 20, 3:02 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 35.0% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 28.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:02) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete deep right to 13-M.Evans (23-J.Haden) [97-C.Heyward].
- (2:56) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete short middle to 10-A.Humphries.
- (2:53) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete short right to 84-C.Brate.
- (2:49) 9-B.Anger punts 64 yards to PIT 16, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 32 for 16 yards (12-C.Godwin).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.62 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.45 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.62 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.27 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.27 pts |
| QB keep | +1.13 pts |
| Play action | +0.72 pts |
| Quick out | +0.57 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.45 pts |
| Deep post | +0.42 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.12 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.08 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.18 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.56 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -1.26 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.47 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.52 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.68 pts |
| End-around | -1.68 pts |
| Spike it | -2.45 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.