Texans vs Jets — Week 15, 2018
The Texans took over trailing 22-19 with 5:00 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Texans 29, Jets 22. Texans won 29-22 — the drive scored.
Texans ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 5:00 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 32.7% for Texans. Our model starts at 31.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (5:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins to HOU 45 for 20 yards (45-R.Miles).
- (4:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 28-A.Blue to NYJ 49 for 6 yards (22-T.Johnson).
- (3:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right to 87-De.Thomas [48-J.Jenkins].
- (3:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 87-De.Thomas to NYJ 24 for 20 yards (41-B.Skrine) [50-F.Luvu].
- (2:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 87-De.Thomas pushed ob at NYJ 21 for 3 yards (41-B.Skrine).
- (2:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 10-D.Hopkins to NYJ 14 for 7 yards (22-T.Johnson).
- (2:20) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.85 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-2.66 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.85 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.83 pts |
| QB keep | +0.73 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.70 pts |
| Quick out | +0.23 pts |
| Play action | +0.17 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.13 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.14 pts |
| Outside run | -0.42 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.62 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.64 pts |
| Deep post | -0.82 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.84 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.98 pts |
| Inside run | -1.08 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.39 pts |
| End-around | -1.81 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.23 pts |
| Spike it | -2.56 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.66 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.