Eagles vs Titans — Week 4, 2018
The Eagles took over trailing 20-17 with 5:00 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 20, Titans 20. Tied 20-20 — the drive turned it over.
Eagles ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 5:00 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 32.6% for Eagles. Our model starts at 34.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (5:00) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 28-W.Smallwood [31-K.Byard].
- (4:55) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 28-W.Smallwood to PHI 36 for 11 yards (26-L.Ryan).
- (4:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-W.Smallwood left tackle to PHI 38 for 2 yards (55-J.Brown, 54-R.Evans).
- (3:46) (Shotgun) 28-W.Smallwood right guard to PHI 42 for 4 yards (55-J.Brown).
- (3:03) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short middle to 86-Z.Ertz.
- (2:59) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.84 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-2.92 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.84 pts |
| Curl route | +0.81 pts |
| QB keep | +0.73 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.68 pts |
| Quick out | +0.22 pts |
| Play action | +0.12 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.11 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.17 pts |
| Outside run | -0.45 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.65 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.68 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.96 pts |
| Deep post | -1.01 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.12 pts |
| Inside run | -1.13 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.47 pts |
| End-around | -1.95 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.44 pts |
| Spike it | -2.66 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.92 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.