Cowboys vs Buccaneers — Week 16, 2018
The Cowboys took over leading 27-20 with 2:04 left, 1st & 10 at the Buccaneers 44, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 27, Buccaneers 20. Cowboys won 27-20 — the drive time expired.
Cowboys ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. In Buccaneers territory, 2:04 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 98.1% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 97.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:04) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to TB 42 for 2 yards (39-I.Johnson).
- (2:00) 21-E.Elliott right end to TB 31 for 11 yards (22-Dev.Harris).
- (1:15) 4-D.Prescott kneels to TB 32 for -1 yards.
- (:34) 4-D.Prescott kneels to TB 33 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.62 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.51 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.62 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -0.75 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.91 pts |
| Quick out | -1.25 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.27 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.28 pts |
| QB keep | -1.64 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.68 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.73 pts |
| Play action | -3.13 pts |
| Curl route | -3.56 pts |
| End-around | -5.55 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.65 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.60 pts |
| Deep post | -9.47 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.54 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.51 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.